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Assessment |
Mistaken
choices made during the refinement of a project are
expensive to rectify later (e.g. during development)
since delays then, when much larger resources are
deployed, incurr heavy nugatory costs. |
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Estimate
Costs |
Some design characteristics
become available; but they are uncertain ahead of
being proven during development. Therefore, cost esimating
must remain primarily performance-based, but it can
now aid in the assessment of technical risk. |
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The Achiles' Heel of
Design-Based Estimating
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1. Identification of a design presumed to yield the required
performance. If made ahead of design and development work (e.g.
at the concept or assessment phases) this is necessarily an
uncertain presumption open to gross error. |
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2. Resulting costings may be accurate estimates of costs of
populated design yet may be underestimates of outturn costs
as greater size and/or complexity than postulated proves necessary
to meet performance requirements. |
If
they are to be reliable, cost estimates made at the concept
or assessment stages must be performance based, therefore.
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